Risk Matrix: Ukraine

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Ukraine Risk Assessment Level

Overall: 4.7

Risks: Updated 16 Aug 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • War related kidnapping

  • Presence of armed

    groups

  • Large scale attacks

Human Trafficking

  • War has increased concern over the risk of human trafficking (but this does not seem to be a major threat for expats)

Crime

  • Theft, armed robbery
  • Sexual assault
  • Illegal drugs
  • ATM Fraud/ skimming
  • Cyber attacks
  • Drink and food spiking

War

  • Ongoing conflict with Russia since Russia’s invasion
  • Some regions more affected than others
  • There is a risk of encountering unexploded weapons in parts of the country, especially in the South and East of Ukraine (particularly along conflict lines and places where ground fighting took place)
  • Explosions have been reported near the area of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during the war, but radiation release has not been reported
  • Large-scale displacement, especially from certain parts of the country
  • Insurgencies

Political

  • State of emergency since Feb 2022
  • Unemployment
  • Corruption
  • Ethnic volatility

Religion

  • Govt prohibits certain religions

  • Anti-conversion laws

  • Arbitrary detention or deportation of foreigners or locals

  • Tension with the Orthodox Church currently

Vehicular

  • Roads vary in quality
  • Routes may be affected by the Russian invasion
  • Night-time travel should be avoided where possible
  • Traffic accidents high
  • Car jackings occur

Infrastructure

  • Damaged roads in parts of the country
  •  Buildings vary from very old to modern; building regulations not applied everywhere
  • Air pollution high

  • Power plants & electricity infrastructure damaged due to war

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements


Disasters

  • Earthquakes (medium level risk)
  • Flooding (higher level risk)
  • Wildfires (higher level risk)
  • Drought (increasing level of risk as a result of climate change)
  • Mudslides (as a result of heavy rain)

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Polio

Food/Water Scarcity

  • As a result of extreme weather
  • As a result of conflict

Pandemics

  • Swine flu
  • SARs/ COVID-19 (not a major concern anymore)

Personal

Linked to the individual’s unique status, traits and situation


Administrative

  • Visa challenges for Ukraine and Schengen
  • ATM withdrawal challenges
  • Limited consular presence 

Identity Concerns

 
  • Russian speakers or those from Russia or those having travelled to Russia can expect heightened scrutiny

Ease of Exit

  • Can exit through some border crossings by car and train; check Schengen visa requirements
  • Expect long queues at border crossings with EU countries and Moldova
  • Some borders are closed to regular traffic, such as border crossings with Belarus and Russia
  • Air space closed

Language Barriers

  • English is not first language of country
  • Speaking Russian is politically sensitive currently

Health System

  • Facilities and medicine currently under strain
  • During the war, health facilities have been attacked, and health workers have died in the attacks
  • Expats generally use private healthcare rather than public healthcare, and pay for private health insurance

Digital Security

  • Websites & internet monitored
  • Expect online privacy issues
  • Cyber attacks common (high-impact cyber attack on Ukrainian networks in Dec 2023)

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Forced conscription of men
  • Electricity outages
  • Mental health issues increasing especially since the invasion
  • Alcohol abuse increasing

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat


NGO

  • Overwhelming needs
  • Frontline staff and locals serving are experiencing fatigue