Risk Matrix: Syria

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites NGOs and knowledgeable individuals.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Risk Assessment Levels

Overall: 4.53

Risks: Updated 10 December 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Kidnapping
  • Presence of armed groups, including ISIS/L
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks
  • Suicide bombings
  • Car bombings

Human Trafficking

  • Smuggling and trafficking routes have expanded throughout the southwest
  • Trafficking for the purposes of child soldiering (not a major threat to expats)
  • Sex trafficking/slavery occurs (not a major threat to expats)
  • Forced/child marriage (not a major threat to expats)
  • Forced labour (not a major threat to expats)
  • Internally and externally displaced Syrians vulnerable
  • Government does not appear to be making significant effort to fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking

Crime

  • Criminality has increased since the start of the war
  • Opportunistic theft
  • Violent robberies
  • Carjackings
  • Sexual assault
  • Kidnapping for ransom and for political reasons
  • Drug trafficking (Govt is allegedly involved in drug production and trade)

War

  • War broke out in 2011
  • There has been a recent resurgence of fighting, with rebel fighters (led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) taking control of multiple areas previously controlled by the government, including the capital Damascus
  • In September 2024, the UN Commission warned of the war intensifying amid continuing patterns of war crimes and concerns about large-scale conflict in the Middle East
  • Israel has conducted strikes recently on ‘Iranian-backed’ fighters in the country
  • Many Syrians remain displaced internally and abroad (more than half of pre-war population)
  • Chemical weapons have been used in the conflict
  • Govt conscription of locals (often indefinitely)

Political

  • Assad family has dominated the government since 1971, until being ousted on 8 December 2024 (currently in exile in Russia)
  • Syria has long been an Authoritarian Presidential Republic
  • Political instability and potential power struggle following ouster of Bashar al-Assad
  • Protests have turned violent and involved arrests and a harsh response from the Govt
  • High levels of unemployment
  • Use of detainment, torture and forced confessions
  • Corruption & bribery
  • Economic hardship
  • International sanctions
  • Govt seen as a Pariah State but has normalised relations with several Middle Eastern States again
  • Non-government groups control some territory
  • Different parties to the war have received backing from different international actors/ countries

Religion

  • Sunni-Muslim majority country
  • Constitution provides for religious freedom but restrictions have been imposed (such as proselytism)
  • Anti-conversion laws (from Islam to other religions)
  • Dual legal system with both secular and religious courts
  • Discrimination towards/ persecution of minority religious groups/ certain Muslim sects (or high-profile individuals from them) and converts has been reported in the past in some areas (especially where extremist groups were more active)

Vehicular

  • Roads unmaintained
  • Travel restrictions imposed with little notice
  • Lack of standardised replacement parts
  • Travel at night is particularly dangerous
  • Major highways can become blocked due to conflict

Infrastructure

  • Pre-war infrastructure was relatively developed
  • Large-scale infrastructure damage due to years of war, including infrastructure supplying clean water and basic sanitation
  • Electricity outages common 

Natural

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Disasters/Extreme Weather

  • Earthquakes (devastating earthquakes on 6 February 2023)
  • Floods
  • Landslides
  • Drought
  • Extreme temperatures 
  • Storms (Including dust storms and sandstorms)
  • Wildfires

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera (Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa and Idleb, but rarely affects travellers)
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Malaria (Very limited P. vivax malaria risk may exist between May and October in foci along the northern border, especially in rural areas of El Hasaka Governorate)
  • Dengue
  • Polio
  • Rabies
  • Measles

  • Cutaneous leishmaniasis

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Extreme weather, climate change
  • Locust swarms
  • Economy & sanctions
  • Around half of Syrians lack access to safe, piped water
  • Diminished supply of water is accompanied by decreased purification and pumping capacity
  • Armed actors weaponise the denial of water
  • Some areas are affected by greater water scarcity

Pandemics/Epidemics

  • Swine flu (past)
  • COVID-19 (not a major concern now)

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Visa challenges
  • Largely cash-based economy
  • ATM withdrawal challenges
  • Penalties for carrying/using currencies other than SYP
  • Limited consular presence or assistance not provided

Identity Concerns

  • Some professions may experience scrutiny – for eg. journalists
  • Females in certain areas may experience discrimination, harassment, verbal abuse and assault (especially if from certain minority groups), but foreigners generally don’t feel unsafe
  • Certain ethnicities may experience discrimination
  • Depends on the region and who it is controlled by

Ease of Exit

  • Conflict could result in airspace closures, flight cancellations and changes
  • Border closures are also a possibility
  • Roadblocks, road closures and fighting may limit access to international border crossings and airports
  • Many commercial airlines have stopped flying to Syria
  • Damascus International Airport is the only airport operating international flights
  • Entry and exit measures may change without notice

Language Barriers

  • Arabic is the official language of the country
  • Several Arabic dialects spoken in daily life
  • Assyrian, Armenian, Kurdish, Turkish and Syriac also spoken, including dialects
  • Many can speak English and/or French due to it being taught in schools as a foreign language
  • Some schools also teach Russian

Health System

  • Overburdened health system
  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff
  • The number of hospitals still operating has decreased drastically

Digital security

  • Govt restrictions on internet access
  • Online privacy issues
  • 2022 Cybercrime Law far-reaching and can be used to further clamp down on digital spaces
  • Freedom of expression limited

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement
  • Fuel, electricity and water shortages
  • Shortages of certain foods and medicines
  • Local currency depreciation and hyper-inflation affects the price of goods

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • At the beginning of 2023, around two thirds of the population needed humanitarian assistance
  • Foreign aid workers have been kidnapped in the past
  • Denying entry to humanitarian aid workers and supplies into cities is a war tactic
  • Syrians are very resilient, welcoming and generous despite years of hardship and the State’s brutality