Risk Matrix: Myanmar

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Risk Assessment Levels

Overall: 3.35

Risks: Updated 17 June 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Myanmar military regime considers several ethnic armed groups to be ‘terrorists’, such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which had attacked military security posts even before 2021 and are suspected to have links to international terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda
  • Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have also been labelled as ‘terrorist’ by the military from 2024, meaning that anyone who has contact with these members are complicit in committing acts of terror

Human Trafficking

  • Some human trafficking linked to Chinese criminal networks running cyber-scamming businesses based in Myanmar (reportedly mostly affects locals and people from surrounding countries)

Crime

  • Myanmar is generally safe if you avoid conflict zones
  • The most common crime affecting expats is petty theft, especially in crowded or tourist areas
  • Scams include merchants trying to sell gold, gems or semi-precious stones with the outcome of you losing your money or becoming involved in illegal activity
  • Cyber-scamming (mainly targets Chinese public in both the scams and trafficking), which often involves online romances used to lure individuals into investing in fake cryptocurrency investment schemes (centres reportedly mostly operate in eastern Myanmar)
  • People are advised to not accept jobs advertised on platforms like Facebook that look too good to be true, due to the risk of being lured into working for scam mills (online fraud businesses)

War

  • Civil war since 2021, when military junta launched a coup following the 2020 elections and cracked down violently on pro-democracy protests
  • Numerous armed militias continue to fight against the military regime and control certain territories
  • Conditions differ significantly depending on the part of the country you are in
  • The civil war is considered an extremely violent conflict, with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project reporting more than 50,000 deaths (including at least 8,000 civilians)
  • Some armed ethnic groups have been fighting the military regime for decades
  • Large-scale internal displacement as a result of the fighting
  • Some parts of the country are off-limits to tourists
  • Landmines in conflict-affected areas (caution should be exercised when venturing off of main roads)

Political

  • Since its independence, it has largely been governed under military regimes, which can be described as predominantly authoritarian
  • Military regime has responded violently to pro-democracy protests
  • Military has often not been held accountable for its actions, such as its operations against ethnic Rohingya
  • Large proportion of the population support democracy and reject the military’s rule
  • Political instability, volatility and unpredictability
  • Media repression by the military Govt
  • Defamation laws provide broad scope for arbitrary charges to be brought against someone, which can result in criminal punishment
  • Legal processes may not be predictable and transparent and may be subject to interference by prominent business or political figures

Religion

  • Buddhism is the dominant religion, and Buddhist nationalism exists
  • People of other faiths can face persecution at times (for example, places of worship being torched)
  • It is illegal to ‘insult religion’, which is interpreted to be broad in scope

Vehicular

  • Reports of dangerous driving behaviour and chaotic driving in urban areas
  • Road conditions vary, with roads in urban areas being generally better than in rural areas
  • Bus system can be confusing but are the most common form of public transportation in major cities
  • Check points manned by the military or different ethnic armed groups in certain regions
  • Some routes may become inaccessible during monsoon season due to flooding
  • The driver of a vehicle involved in an accident with a pedestrian is always at fault under Myanmar law
  • There is an increased risk of attack on roads after dark, such as on the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway and National Highway 1 linking Yangon to Mandalay

Infrastructure

  • Transportation infrastructure can be limited in rural areas

    Power cuts (including scheduled)

  • No phone signal at times

  • Infrastructure can be damaged by extreme weather events and natural disasters, such as the recent earthquake and floods

  • Internet lines sometimes cut, internet coverage is not always reliable in more remote locations

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme Weather

  • Earthquakes (the largest in over a century was the 7.7-magnitude earthquake in March 2025, which struck central Myanmar and affected six regions in the country)
  • Heavy rains during monsoon season

  • Flooding

  • Cyclones  (usually between mid-April to mid-May; October to November)

  • Landslides

  • Periodic droughts

  • Heatwaves

Diseases

  • Dengue fever (rainy season, not so common)

    Malaria (rainy season, not so common) (exacerbated by shortages in malaria supplies)

  • Chikungunya (not common)

  • Cholera

  • Tuberculosis

  • HIV/AIDS

  • Experiences of food hygiene and safety are mixed, especially when it comes to street food vendors

  • Tap water not always safe to drink

  • Contaminated water in many communities after water and sanitation infrastructure was destroyed by the earthquake, leading to increased rates of illness, such as acute watery diarrhoea

  • Vaccination coverage for childhood illnesses are low, increasing the risk of measles and diphtheria outbreaks

  • Swimming in certain bodies of fresh water may result in exposure to Bilharzia/ Schistosomiasis

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Linked to extreme weather and natural disasters (eg. flooding and droughts)
  • Linked to lack of safe drinking water in certain areas, especially after such events when infrastructure is damaged

Pandemics/Epidemics

  • COVID-19 (not a serious concern now)
  • Influenza-like illness

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Reported high level of bureaucracy
  • Few things done electronically

  • Govt agencies not always easy to get in contact with

  • Corruption and bribery, including at customs

  • Extended visas can be challenging to obtain

  • After the earthquake in March 2025, the military Govt temporarily suspended all tourist visa applications, but not business visas

Identity Concerns

  • The experience of foreigners may differ depending on the sector in which you work
  • Certain professions, such as journalists and photographers, could be arrested and detained if attempting to take photos of protests and demonstrations, or treated with suspicion generally
  • Human rights activists also at risk of arrest and arbitrary detention
  • There are reports of local employers being privileged over foreign employees under the law
  • It is apparently difficult to travel within Myanmar with a mobility disability

Ease of Exit

  • Borders are open but there are some restrictions
  • The military and opposition forces may restrict travel by road at short notice

Language Barriers

  • Burmese is the most widely spoken language
  • English is spoken mainly in urban areas and among the educated population
  • Many young people can apparently speak English at a decent level
  • Many personnel at police and military checkpoints do not speak English

Health System

  • Healthcare infrastructure can be limited outside the main urban areas
  • The public healthcare system is quite underdeveloped relative to Western standards
  • Expats use the private healthcare system
  • Emergency medical services do not always respond quickly, so private transportation may be better in emergency situations

  • For serious medical procedures, expats often travel to neighbouring countries

  • Several hospitals have been destroyed or partially damaged by the 2025 earthquake,

  • Many hospitals are located in territories contested in the civil war and are thus inaccessible to many

  • Medical supply chains have reportedly been disrupted since the February 2021 military coup

Digital security

  • Digital security is reportedly poor

    Govt controls internet access and blocks certain services

  • VPNs are widely used (esp to access websites banned by the military Govt such as Facebook) but access is restricted, and the Govt banned their use

  • The military Govt’s Cyber Security Law is considered repressive and there are concerns about its negative impact on digital safety and security in the country

  • Cyber-scamming grew during the Covid-19 pandemic, which is especially carried out by Chinese syndicates who have taken advantage of the corruption and weak rule of law in Myanmar after the coup

  • The main cyber-scamming operations take place along the eastern border with China and Thailand (such as Laukkai in Kokang region), which is allegedly carried out in partnership with members of the military although the military said it has cooperated with China to destroy these operations since it became aware of them

  • Despite Operation 1027 in 2024 being successful in expelling scam syndicates from the Kokang region, these syndicates remain intact, and operations just got shifted to other areas, such as Karen State in Myanmar, or neighbouring countries Laos and Cambodia

  • Foreign mobile phone SIM cards may not work

Every day

  • Reports of business culture being hierarchical

    Travel restrictions can be imposed depending on political factors

  • Cost of living varies significantly, with housing costs being high in the major cities, for example

  • Imported goods can be expensive

  • Access to credit can be challenging

  • ATMs are less common in rural areas and may not accept foreign cards or have withdrawal limits and relatively high transaction fees

  • Local currency unstable

  • Exchanging foreign currencies besides dollars outside of Yangon can be a challenge

  • Some areas are under martial law and some are affected by curfews or orders to ‘stay at home’ (For example, in Yangon there is a curfew from 1am-3am)

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • It has not been easy for international NGOs to access Myanmar

    Access for humanitarian organisations to carry out aid operations can be restricted by violence between the military and armed groups

  • Internet and telecommunication shutdowns imposed by the military can make it difficult to contact affected communities, assess the situation and coordinate responses

  • Red tape can be an issue

  • International transfers of money can be a challenge, as they can be slow, bureaucratic and/or scrutinised