Risk Matrix: Mozambique

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety and wellbeing of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influence the safety and wellbeing of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Mozambique Risk Assessment Level

Overall: 3.3

Risks: Updated 10 Sept 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Presence of armed groups, such as IS-Mozambique (IS-M)
  • IS-M mainly active in Cabo Delgado Province, and has previously carried out attacks in neighbouring districts of Niassa and Nampula Provinces
  • Kidnapping in south business and related to oriental profiles; north IS-M related
  • Piracy
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks

Human Trafficking

  • Human trafficking restricted to the north

Crime

  • Theft, armed robbery not common
  • Street crime common in Maputo and increasing in other cities and tourist areas
  • Sexual assault in marriage
  • Police harassment
  • Drug dealing limited to high profile people groups

War

  • No war with neighbours, but continued insurrection in the north has affected and displaced many
  • Peacekeeping forces in the North
  • Landmines may still exist in remote areas away from main routes

Political

  • Presidential elections scheduled for 9 Oct 2024; opposition parties not freely welcomed
  • Protests and demonstrations sporadic and unpredictable
  • Unemployment high, salaries low and delayed payments contribute to tension
  • Corruption present
  • Currency relative stable but weak economy in north

Religion

  • Freedom of religion enshrined in Constitution (80% free)
  • Islamic militants are fighting for Shariah Law and desire to establish a caliphate (restricted to Northern Mozambique); extreme practices reported related to IS-M
  • Widespread indigenous religious practices

Vehicular

  • Southern part – National roads in good condition but outside main cities not maintained
  • Northern parts – unmaintained and inconsistent
  • Road accidents common
  • Outside main roads, presence of street lights are minimal
  • Some roads in low-lying areas can become flooded and impassable in rainy seasons
  • Police/check points unpredictable and bribery is likely

Infrastructure

  • Inconsistent road maintenance
  • Pollution (including air and solid waste pollution), although air pollution is generally considered acceptable currently
  • Infrastructure varied – contrasting between very old and modern; can be damaged by natural disasters

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme weather

  • Drought
  • Cyclones
  • Floods

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Malaria
  • Rabies

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Water sources ss a result of extreme weather, climate change & added pressure on resources by IDPs 

Pandemics/Epidemics

  • Swine flu
  • Historic presence of ZIKA
  • SARS/ COVID 19 present; numbers very low

Personal

Linked to the individual’s unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Check visa requirements
  • ATM – normal system issues
  • Check consular presence
  • Lack of consistency between administrative districts, paperwork requirements fluid

Identity Concerns

  • Some people may experience scrutiny/ harassment or cause officials to suspect support of terrorism
  • Lack of correct documentation will raise concerns
  • Expats in northern part expect more scrutiny

Ease of Exit

  • Mozambique shares multiple borders, but some border crossings are sometimes closed in the north linked to terrorist activity
  • Mozambique has four international airports – Maputo, Pemba and Vilanculos, Xei Xei
  • Airspaces under attack  to be closed in times of heightened violence; localised

Language

  • English is not first language of country
  • Portuguese preferred

Health System

  • Lack of quality medical and emergency care especially in rural areas
  • Distances far, accessibility issues in rural areas  

Digital security

  • Hacking occurs
  • Phishing and malware activities present
  • Network coverage vulnerable in rural areas

Every day

  • Expect flight changes
  • Corruption
  • Arbitrary detention (or deportation) of foreigners possible, linked to suspicious activities

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • In areas at risk of terrorist activity, humanitarian workers can be targeted
  • Inconsistent paperwork and fee – requirements; expect delays and challenges