Risk Matrix: Lebanon

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Risk Assessment Levels

Overall: 5

Risks: Updated 7 Oct 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Kidnapping (high risk)
  • Presence of armed groups
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks

Human Trafficking

  • Human & organ trafficking

Crime

  • Opportunistic theft
  • Sexual assault
  • ATM Fraud/ skimming

War

  • War broke out in 2011
  • Although there has been an overall de-escalation, the situation remains volatile and clashes continue
  • In September 2024, the UN Commission warned of the war intensifying amid continuing patterns of war crimes and concerns about large-scale conflict in the Middle East
  • Many Syrians remained displaced internally and abroad
  • Chemical weapons have been used in the conflict

Political

  • Protests can turn violent and involve arrests
  • Unemployment
  • Corruption
  • Economic hardship
  • Ethnic Clashes

Religion

  • Shariah Law
  • Anti-conversion laws & punishment
  • Religious Police
  • Persecution of Christians & minorities

Vehicular

  • Roads unmaintained
  • Road accidents common
  • Lack of standardised replacement parts
  • Outside main roads, presence of street lights are minimum

Infrastructure

  • Pre-war infrastructure was relatively developed
  • Large-scale infrastructure damage due to years of war, including infrastructure supplying clean water and basic sanitation
  • Electricity outages common 

Natural

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Disasters/Extreme Weather

  • Earthquakes (devastating earthquakes on 6 February 2023)
  • Floods
  • Landslides
  • Drought
  • Extreme temperatures 
  • Storms
  • Wildfires

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera (Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa and Idleb, but rarely affects travellers)
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Malaria (Very limited P. vivax malaria risk may exist between May and October in foci along the northern border, especially in rural areas of El Hasaka Governorate)
  • Dengue
  • Polio
  • Rabies
  • Cutaneous leishmaniasis

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Extreme weather, climate change
  • Locust swarms
  • Economy & sanctions
  • Around half of Syrians lack access to safe, piped water
  • Diminished supply of water is accompanied by decreased purification and pumping capacity
  • Armed actors weaponise the denial of water
  • Some areas are affected by greater water scarcity

Pandemics

  • Swine flu
  • SARs
  • ZIKA
  • Ebola
  • COVID-19

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Visa challenges
  • ATM withdrawal challenges
  • Limited consular presence or assistance not provided

Identity Concerns

  • Some people may experience scrutiny – journalists, those of non-Muslim faiths (for eg. Christians)
  • Discrimination towards females, certain ethnicities

Ease of Exit


  • Conflict could result in airspace closures, flight cancellations and changes
  • Border closures are also a possibility
  • Entry and exit measures may change without notice

Language Barriers

  • English is not first language of country
  • Taliban speaks Phasto

Health System

  • Overburdened health system
  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff
  • The number of hospitals still operating has decreased drastically

Digital security

  • Govt blocks websites & internet
  • Online privacy issues

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement
  • Fuel, electricity and water shortages
  • Shortages in certain foods and medicines

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • At the beginning of 2023, around two thirds of the population needed humanitarian assistance
  • Foreign aid workers have been kidnapped