Gaza’s uncertain future, the ICC’s belated Janjaweed conviction, and America’s authoritarian spiral: The Cheat Sheet

10 October 2025

This story was originally published by The New Humanitarian.

Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.

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After two years, a ceasefire in Gaza… and an unclear future

Early in the afternoon on 10 October, a ceasefire came into effect in the Gaza Strip, bringing hope – after more than two years – that Israel’s brutal military campaign in the enclave may finally come to an end. Much about the agreement, what will happen next, and what exactly changed for US President Donald Trump and Gulf Arab states to finally pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (who has walked away from numerous similar deals) and Hamas to accept its terms remains unclear. For now, the Israeli military has said it is withdrawing its troops to an agreed-upon line in Gaza, and Hamas will have 72 hours to release the remaining 48 hostages (including around 20 who are believed to be alive) it and other Palestinian militant groups have been holding since the deadly 7 October 2023 attacks into Israel that precipitated the war. Immediately after the ceasefire began, thousands of Palestinians began returning to northern Gaza after being recently displaced by an Israeli ground invasion that was underway to take over Gaza City. Over the past two years, at a minimum, over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed as a direct result of Israeli bombing and gunfire. Many thousands more have likely died from other dire effects of the war and siege, including an Israeli-induced famine. The enclave has been rendered all-but-unlivable by Israel’s widespread destruction of life-sustaining infrastructure – from housing to hospitals to agricultural land. Reconstruction will need a massive, long-term effort. But the biggest question marks remain about what political authority will oversee that effort and what restrictions and conditions will be imposed by Israel – if the ceasefire holds. Without accountability for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, and without the fulfillment of Palestinians’ right to self-determination and an end to Israel’s occupation, relief may quickly give way to disillusionment and the re-entrenchment of suffering and injustice.

Did accountability for Janjaweed commander come too late?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has convicted Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-Al-Rahman, known as Ali Kushayb, on 27 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed while he commanded the Janjaweed militia in Darfur in the early 2000s. The long-awaited conviction is the first against an individual involved in atrocities committed in Sudan’s western region, with arrest warrants outstanding for several others. The Janjaweed was made up of Darfuri militias created and armed by a past Sudanese government to crush a rebellion in the marginalised region. Its victims have championed the trial (see this video we produced on the matter), but many note that the time it took to reach a conviction – ICC investigations in Darfur opened in 2005 – underscore the court’s inability to prevent future crimes. Indeed, the Janjaweed’s successor, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is now fighting Sudan’s army in a civil war that has created the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises. RSF fighters in Darfur have been accused of ethnic cleansing and other crimes that may amount to genocide. As one Darfur resident, Jamal Abdallah, told Reuters in response to the ICC verdict: “The same people who were there in the 2000s are in the RSF now. The reason they repeat their crimes is lack of accountability.”

Aid worker safety org INSO rejects Burkina Faso “spying” accusations

The International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO) has rejected accusations from Burkina Faso’s security minister that it was spying and collecting data that could be detrimental to the country’s national security. INSO operates globally, gathering and analysing security information to help aid organisations work safely, but it has now been caught in the dragnet of an increasingly authoritarian junta, whose sovereigntist politics has turned sharply against relief groups. In a statement, INSO said its country director was detained on 28 July, and four national staff and three international staff – including the organisation’s global director of programmes, who had travelled to Ouagadougou to engage with authorities and resolve the issue – have also been arrested since then. In August, following the publication of a UN report on abuses against children in conflict, which attributed some grave violations to Burkinabè defence forces and allied groups, the junta expelled the UN’s top official in the country. Other international NGOs have, meanwhile, been suspended over alleged administrative non-compliance, and the authorities have made it increasingly difficult for humanitarians to collect data, conduct assessments, and operate in areas where jihadist groups are in control.

Amid drastic cuts, UN refugee agency chief delivers some parting shots

More layoffs, more warnings, and more than a hint of frustration: With the exit door in sight, the head of the UN’s refugee agency delivered a blunter-than-usual address to funders during annual executive committee meetings. Budget cuts from the US and other donors were “imposed on us in the most unstrategic manner I have observed in my long career”, Filippo Grandi said in opening the yearly session, held to approve the agency’s budget among other matters. In an era of deep cuts (that followed big spending and steep growth), UNHCR’s projected 2026 budget will be further squeezed: about $8.5 billion (compared with more than $10 billion yearly since 2022). Those are estimated costs for full responses, not actual income: UNHCR’s budget may be less than 40% funded this year. Grandi, whose term ends at the end of the year, also said the agency faces a $300 million budget shortfall (a “mismatch”, he euphemistically called it), while a quarter of UNHCR staff, 5,000 people, have lost their jobs. With funds shrinking and funders shirking, UNHCR is pushing a new-ish strategy for protecting refugee needs and rights beyond conventional camps. Grandi, meanwhile, is serving soundbites with a slight reformist twist: “It is no longer tenable to perpetuate a system that treats displaced people and their hosts differently; that excludes one group at the expense of another; that maintains inefficient and unsustainable parallel systems.”

Africa’s mixed economic picture

Africa is defying the global gloom with economic growth projected to hit 3.8% in 2025 – up from 3.5% in 2024 – says the World Bank. The steady climb could reach 4.4% for 2026-27, driven in part by the taming of inflation by a number of countries. Yet risks loom large. They include Africa’s debt service burden, and a shrinking pool of external finance – including the crash in aid budgets. Jobs are another headache. Africa’s economies need to grow much faster to create employment opportunities for its youthful labour force. Africa’s best-performing companies are in the fintech sector, but they are clustered in just a handful of countries. Meanwhile, the cancellation last week of the US-Africa preferential trade pact, known as AGOA, has been a blow to dozens of countries (although there may be some wiggle room). AGOA was worth $10 billion in exports in 2023, especially for Kenya, South Africa, Lesotho, and Madagascar, whose textile and apparel industries relied heavily on the US market. China – already a major player on the continent – has gone a step further and announced it is ready to drop tariffs for all African countries.

Trump weaponises justice as he goes after opponents

President Trump is doubling down on his push to criminalise political opponents and to deploy the military in cities run by Democratic mayors. On 8 October, he called for the mayor of Chicago and the governor of Illinois, both Democrats, to be jailed. Both have been outspoken critics of the Trump administration’s campaign to round up and deport undocumented immigrants and the often violent tactics used by federal agents. Trump has used protests against his immigration crackdown and misleading claims about crime as a pretext to deploy National Guard soldiers in US cities. A judge has temporarily blocked the deployment of troops in Chicago, but soldiers were expected to be deployed to the city of Memphis on 10 October. After pressure from Trump, a federal grand jury has also indicted the attorney general from New York, Letitia James – who pursued high-profile criminal investigations into Trump’s business empire – on bank fraud charges. Trump has repeatedly pledged to use the US Justice Department to go after political opponents, several of whom have already been targeted. He has also launched an open-ended attack on liberal opposition under the guise of a crackdown on the anti-fascist movement antifa, which Trump has labelled a terrorist organisation. A history professor who studies the loose-knit movement became the target of online death threats and fled the US for Spain on 9 October after being blocked from boarding a flight the previous night.

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And finally…

From Kanye to the Arab Spring: Photojournalism ethics

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The New Humanitarian puts quality, independent journalism at the service of the millions of people affected by humanitarian crises around the world. Find out more at www.thenewhumanitarian.org.