Risk Matrix: Afghanistan

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Afghanistan Risk Assessment Level

Overall: 4.1

Risks: Updated 7 Oct 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Kidnapping
  • Presence of armed groups
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks

Human Trafficking

  • Human & organ trafficking

Crime

  • Theft, armed robbery
  • Heroin/ drug trading
  • Sexual assault
  • ATM Fraud/ skimming

War

  • Ongoing clashes at the border

Political

  • Taliban Gov, anti-western mindset
  • Unemployment
  • Corruption
  • Economic hardship
  • Ethnic clashes

Religion

  • Shariah Law
  • Anti-conversion laws & punishment
  • Religious Police
  • Persecution of Christians & minorities
  • Education for girls forbidden

Vehicular

  • Roads unmaintained
  • Road accidents common
  • Lack of standardised replacement parts
  • Outside main roads, presence of street lights are minimum

Infrastructure

  • Unregulated building standards
  • Consider road conditions outside main urban centers similar to off-road conditions
  • Electricity outages common 

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme Weather

  • Earthquakes
  • Volcanoes
  • Landslides
  • Drought

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • Malaria
  • Dengue
  • Rabies
  • Acute diarrhoea
  • Polio
  • Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Due to extreme weather, climate change
  • Due to locust swarms
  • Due to economy & sanctions

Pandemics

  • Swine flu (past)
  • SARs
  • ZIKA
  • COVID-19 (not a major risk anymore)

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Visa challenges
  • ATM withdrawal challenges
  • Limited consular presence or assistance not provided

Identity Concerns

  • Some people may experience scrutiny – journalists, those of non-Muslim faiths (for eg. Christians)
  • Discrimination towards females, certain ethnicities

Ease of Exit

  • It is easier for some groups/ individuals to be evacuated than others, such as US citizens
  •  There are up to 50 airports/ airfields, but only 5 with scheduled flights (biggest being the Kabul International Airport)

Language Barriers

  • English is not first language of country
  • Taliban speaks Phasto

Health System

  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff

Digital security

  • Govt has ability to block websites & internet
  • Online privacy issues

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • Many female staff can no longer work
  • High needs but greater reach (except for access to women and girls)
  • Lower security risks but increased bureaucratic challenges
  • Constant negotiation with authorities
  • Can be tough to navigate Taliban restrictions