Risk Matrix: South Africa

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety and wellbeing of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influence the safety and wellbeing of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

South Africa Risk Assessment Levels

Overall: 2

Risks: Updated 10 Sept 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Sporadic Terror threats
  • Presence of far-right and left-wing groups 

Human Trafficking

  • Human traffickers exploit locals and foreigners
  • The govt does not yet fully satisfy the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking, although progress has been made

Crime

  • Armed robbery/home break-ins 
  • Violent muggings
  • Gang activities/ violence
  • Organised crime
  • Carjacking
  • Rape and sexual assault
  • Gender-based violence
  • Murder
  • Fraud and scams
  • Xenophobic violence
  • Kidnapping high profile individuals

War

  • Not in the typical sense, but gang wars are prevalent in certain parts of the country

Political

  • Protests and demonstrations
  • Unemployment
  • Corruption
  • Economic hardship
  • Ethnic clashes
  • Xenophobia

Religion

  • Freedom of religion in constitution
  • Intra-ethnicity persecution happening to MMB
  • Prevention and Combating of Hate Crimes and Hate Speech Act 2023

Vehicular

  • Many roads unmaintained
  • Road accidents common

Infrastructure

  • Electricity outages common
  • Water interruptions possible 

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme weather

  • Earthquakes –  mostly tremors
  • Landslides
  • Drought
  • Floods
  • Storms
  • Wildfires

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • Malaria in some areas
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Monkeypox
  • Rabies

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Extreme weather, climate change
  • Locust swarms
  • Economy & sanctions

Pandemics

  • Swine flu
  • SARs
  • COVID-19

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Visa challenges especially for asylum seekers

Identity Concerns

  • Xenophobia present in some areas 
  • Discrimination and stigmatization towards females, certain ethnicities, Albinism, disabled

Ease of Exit

  • It is easier for some groups/ individuals to be evacuated than others, such as US citizens
  •  There are up to xxx airports

Language Barriers

  • English is the official language of the country, but communities in some areas of the country are not comfortable in English

Health System

  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff

Digital security

  • Govt blocks websites & internet
  • Online privacy issues

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • Bureaucratic obstacles