Risk Matrix: Syria

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influences the safety of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites NGOs and knowledgeable individuals.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

Risk Assessment Levels

Overall: 4.05

Risks: Updated 25 June 2025

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Kidnapping
  • Presence of armed groups, including ISIS/L
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks
  • Suicide bombings (such as recent church attack in Damascus in June 2025)
  • Car bombings

Human Trafficking

  • Smuggling and trafficking routes have expanded throughout the southwest
  • Although human trafficking exists, it does not seem to be a major risk for expats
  • Internally and externally displaced Syrians vulnerable
  • Govt does not appear to be making significant effort to fully meet the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking

Crime

  • Criminality has increased since the start of the war
  • Opportunistic theft
  • Violent robberies
  • Carjackings
  • Sexual assault
  • Kidnapping for ransom and for political reasons
  • Drug trafficking (Govt was allegedly involved in drug production and trade)

War

  • Civil war (with support from multiple international actors) broke out in 2011 and lasted around 14 years
  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (former Al-Qaida affiliate) overthrew the Assad government in December 2024
  • Israel has conducted strikes on targets in the country since the takeover in December, including to degrade military infrastructure
  • Many Syrians remain displaced internally and abroad
  • Localised clashes are still taking place between opposition armed groups in some governates

Political

  • Assad family dominated the government since 1971, until being ousted on 8 December 2024 (currently in exile in Russia)
  • Interim govt has been established
  • Syria has long been an Authoritarian Presidential Republic
  • Sectarian tensions exacerbated following ouster of Bashar al-Assad
  • In the past, protests have turned violent and involved arrests and a harsh response from the Govt
  • Corruption and bribery exists
  • International sanctions have begun easing
  • Govt was seen as a Pariah State but has normalised relations with several Middle Eastern States again
  • Different parties to the war have received backing from different international actors/ countries

Religion

  • Sunni-Muslim majority country
  • Constitution provides for religious freedom but restrictions have been imposed (such as on proselytism)
  • Anti-conversion laws (from Islam to other religions)
  • Dual legal system with both secular and religious courts
  • Discrimination towards/ persecution of minority religious groups/ certain Muslim sects (or high-profile individuals from them) and converts has been reported in the past in some areas (especially where extremist groups were more active)

Vehicular

  • Many roads unmaintained
  • Travel restrictions imposed with little notice
  • Lack of standardised replacement parts
  • Travel at night is particularly dangerous
  • During the war, major highways could become blocked due to conflict

Infrastructure

  • Pre-war infrastructure was relatively developed
  • Large-scale infrastructure damage due to years of war, including infrastructure supplying clean water and basic sanitation
  • Electricity outages common 

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme Weather

  • Earthquakes (devastating earthquakes on 6 February 2023)
  • Floods
  • Landslides
  • Drought
  • Extreme temperatures 
  • Storms (Including dust storms and sandstorms)
  • Wildfires

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera (Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, Ar-Raqqa and Idleb, but rarely affects travellers)
  • TB and Hepatitis
  • HIV/AIDS
  • Malaria (Very limited P. vivax malaria risk may exist between May and October in foci along the northern border, especially in rural areas of El Hasaka Governorate)
  • Dengue
  • Polio
  • Rabies
  • Measles

  • Cutaneous leishmaniasis

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Extreme weather, climate change
  • Contributed to by locust swarms
  • Contributed to by weak economy and sanctions
  • Around half of Syrians lack access to safe, piped water
  • Diminished supply of water is accompanied by decreased purification and pumping capacity
  • Armed actors have weaponised the denial of water
  • Some areas are affected by greater water scarcity

Pandemics/Epidemics

  • Swine flu (past)
  • COVID-19 (not a major concern now)

Personal

Linked to the individual’s identity and unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Visa challenges
  • Entry may be denied if your passport shows you have travelled to Israel
  • Largely cash-based economy
  • ATM withdrawal challenges
  • Penalties for carrying/using currencies other than SYP
  • Limited consular presence or assistance not provided

Identity Concerns

  • Some professions may experience scrutiny – for eg. journalists
  • Females in certain areas may experience discrimination, harassment, verbal abuse and assault (especially if from certain minority groups), but foreigners generally don’t feel unsafe
  • Individuals from certain ethnicities or faiths may experience discrimination
  • Depends on the region and who it is controlled by

Ease of Exit

  • Conflict could result in airspace closures, flight cancellations and changes
  • Border closures are also a possibility
  • Roadblocks, road closures and fighting may limit access to international border crossings and airports
  • Many commercial airlines continue to suspend flights to and from Syria
  • Damascus International Airport is the only airport operating international flights
  • Entry and exit measures may change without notice

Language Barriers

  • Arabic is the official language of the country
  • Several Arabic dialects spoken in daily life
  • Assyrian, Armenian, Kurdish, Turkish and Syriac also spoken, including dialects
  • Many can speak English and/or French due to it being taught in schools as a foreign language
  • Some schools also teach Russian

Health System

  • Overburdened health system
  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff
  • The number of hospitals still operating has decreased drastically

Digital Security

  • Govt restrictions on internet access
  • Online privacy issues
  • 2022 Cybercrime Law far-reaching and can be used to further clamp down on digital spaces
  • Freedom of expression limited

Every Day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement
  • Fuel, electricity and water shortages
  • Shortages of certain foods and medicines
  • Local currency depreciation and hyper-inflation affects the price of goods

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat


NGO

  • At the beginning of 2023, around two thirds of the population needed humanitarian assistance
  • Foreign aid workers have been kidnapped in the past
  • Denying entry to humanitarian aid workers and supplies into cities was a war tactic
  • Syrians are very resilient, welcoming and generous despite years of hardship and the State’s brutality