Risk Matrix: South Sudan

Explanation: The Risk Assessment Levels and Factor Matrix provides an overview of the main factors influencing the safety and wellbeing of expats[i] in a host country.

The Levels are based on internationally recognised colour codes and includes a description of each level, as well as preparatory interventions advised for each level.
The factor matrix (further below), contains factors that influence the safety and wellbeing of expats as well as the stability of the host country. A total Risk level for the country is provided, based on the added average of the various categories (and rounded to the nearest whole number).
The matrix and final score are provided to assist with gathering of information in order for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions and secure a level of preparedness related to the destination. By providing this matrix and score, the CRN in no manner either prohibits or encourages travel to a location. Every individual and organisation makes their own decisions whether to travel or not, and does so completely at their own risk. The information contained in the factor matrix is taken from a variety of sources, including government sources, travel websites and NGOs.
 

[i] Expat is a person living in a country other than their native country.

[ii] Preparatory Interventions can include Personal or Advanced Safety Training, Hostage Event training, Contingencies and Evacuation plans and Crisis Management Team (CMT) training. The reason for travelling will determine the type of training – e.g. Global Journalist Security Training focuses on needs of human rights defenders, etc. Individuals or organisations must pursue preparatory measures and content of training suited to their mandate and needs.

 

Risk Assessment Guide

1 | Very Low

Little to no impact on expats[i]

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research country
  • Travel insurance

2 | Low

Some variables exist, but situation is predictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training

3 | Medium

 Several variables exist and the situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Contingency plans
  • Support actors have a CMT

4 | High

Conditions exist that are unsafe and situation is unpredictable

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and Insurance
  • Personal safety training         
  • Hostage training,
  • Advanced Security training   
  • Contingency and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

6 | Very High

Constant and serious threats exist and situation is hostile

Preparatory interventions[ii]

  • Research and insurance
  • Personal safety training
  • Hostage training
  • Advanced security training
  • Contingencies and evac plan
  • Support actors have a CMT

South Sudan Risk Assessment Level

Overall: 4.4

Risks: Updated 3 Sept 2024

Manmade

Linked predominantly to human action or inaction

Terrorism

  • Presence of armed groups
  • Suspicions that South Sudan may be a transit country for Islamists travelling from East to North Africa
  • Kidnapping
  • Large-scale attacks
  • Lone wolf attacks
  • Limited initiatives and programmes to prevent violent extremism 

Human Trafficking

  • Source and destination country
  • Forced labour and domestic servitude
  • Child labour and child soldiers
  • Sexual exploitation and early marriage

Crime

  • Theft, armed robbery
  • Heroin/ drug smuggling (generally transiting)
  • Assault
  • Sexual assault
  • Organised crime (mafia-style)
  • Arms trafficking 
  • Kidnapping for ransom (low risk)
  • Cattle rustling
  • Counterfeiting
  • Illegal logging and mining
  • Fauna and mineral smuggling
  • Illegal taxation and extractive industries

War

  • Ongoing ethnic, tribal and intercommunal violence
  • Rebel group militias accused of human rights atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity
  • Mass displacement 
  • War in neighbouring Sudan has sent South Sudanese returnees and Sudanese refugees into country

Political

  • Elections due for December 2024
  • Elections have been postponed in the past
  • Political instability
  • Past civil war pitted supporters of president against those of the vice president
  • Leaders from majority ethnic group have dominated government decision-making
  • Use of hate speech
  • Unemployment
  • Delayed payments of public salaries
  • Corruption, bribery, tax evasion, money laundering and other illicit activity among ruling elite
  • Haven for criminals to launder proceeds of illicit activities
  • Weak economy, shortage of foreign currency
  • Ethnic clashes and volatility
  • Weak governance and rule of law
  • Weak inter-state cooperation 

Religion

  • Transitional constitution provides for separation of religion and state and freedom of religion/belief
  • Religiously-motivated attacks have occurred but are rare

Vehicular

  • Low percentage of roads surfaced and maintained
  • Travel by road can be slow
  • Poor driving standards and unpredictable driving behaviour
  • Pedestrians and animals in roadways
  • Armed robbery and attacks occur on roads
  • Outside main roads, presence of street lights are minimal

Infrastructure

  • Unregulated building standards
  • One of the lowest electrification penetration rates in the world
  • Electricity outages common 
  • Very basic infrastructure in many areas

Natural

Linked predominantly to conditions influenced by physical environmental elements

Disasters/Extreme weather

  • Seasonal floods (most common)
  • Drought
  • Bushfires
  • Seasonal extreme heat

Diseases

  • Influenza
  • Cholera
  • TB & Hepatitis
  • Malaria
  • Dengue
  • Typhoid (common)

Food/Water Scarcity

  • Serious food shortages and food insecurity
  • More than half of the population lacks access to safe water
  • As a result of extreme weather and climate change, such as floods and drought
  • As a result of ongoing violence, displacement, disrupted trade, markets and cultivation
  • Depreciation of the local currency negatively impacts food prices
  • Insufficient water for irrigation affects crop yields

Pandemics

  • Ebola (limited, mostly proactive screenings when neighbouring countries have outbreaks)
  • COVID-19

Personal

Linked to the individual’s unique status, traits and situation

Administrative

  • Limited ATMs
  • Long queues at banks and other cash points
  • Corruption and bribery rampant 

Identity Concerns

Ease of Exit

  • Thousands have been safely evacuated out of South Sudan in the past, requiring military or charter planes if commercial airlines are not operational in times of crisis
  • Two international airports – one in the capital Juba and one in Malakal in the north
  • South Sudan’s airspace closed above FL245 following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in 2023

Language Barriers

  • English and Arabic are the official languages, but over 60 indigenous languages spoken
  • Arabic seen by some as the language of oppression

Health System

  • Facilities lacking supplies/ staff
  • Some areas do not have easy access to a health facility
  • South Sudan prone to disease outbreaks due to weak health and immunisation systems

Digital security

  • Digital media has been censored and blocked by Govt
  • Security organs can conduct surveillance
  • Low-grade hacking, phishing and malware occurs

Every day

  • Flight challenges
  • Check points
  • Limitations on movement
  • Widespread poverty
  • Volatile currency with periods of high depreciation
  • Unavailability of commodities or high prices
  • Poor service delivery

Work/Presence

Linked specifically to conditions related to work as an expat

NGO

  • Many experience lack of consistent funding
  • A concerning number of aid workers have been killed, wounded, or kidnapped over the past decade
  • Bureaucratic obstacles and state interference
  • NGOs may be affected by ethnic tensions, the presence of armed rebel groups, the lack of rule of law, volatile currency with periods of high depreciation